Severe Weather Outlook
Severe Weather Outlook
Valid from Saturday 3 March 2012 to Tuesday 6 March 2012
A low is expected to deepen rapdily as it crosses the Tasman Sea on Friday, and to become intense as it crosses the North Island on Saturday. Gale force winds are expected over much of the North Island for a time on Saturday. In some places, these gales could be severe and damaging. A period of very heavy rain is also expected in many places. A Severe Weather Watch for strong winds and heavy rain affecting all North Island regions during Saturday is already in force. For more infomation on this watch go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/warnings/severe-weather-watch
Additionally, severe gales and heavy rain are also possible about North Canterbury, Marlborough and Nelson during Saturday. For North Canterbury and Marlborough the risk that strong winds or heavy rain may reach warning criteria is considered moderate, while for Nelson it is considered low.
On Sunday the low should move away from the North Island, with conditions starting to ease over much of central and northern New Zealand late Saturday. However, there is the possibility that severe weather could still affect Hawkes Bay and Gisborne during overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning.
A period of settled weather is then expected over New Zealand during the remainder of Sunday and most of Monday. However, late on Monday a front is expected to approach the southwest of the country and move onto the South Island early Tuesday. Associated with this front there is a low risk of significant heavy rain about Fiordland and south Westland on Tuesday.
Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.A low is expected to deepen rapdily as it crosses the Tasman Sea on Friday, and to become intense as it crosses the North Island on Saturday. Gale force winds are expected over much of the North Island for a time on Saturday. In some places, these gales could be severe and damaging. A period of very heavy rain is also expected in many places. A Severe Weather Watch for strong winds and heavy rain affecting all North Island regions during Saturday is already in force. For more infomation on this watch go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/warnings/severe-weather-watch
Additionally, severe gales and heavy rain are also possible about North Canterbury, Marlborough and Nelson during Saturday. For North Canterbury and Marlborough the risk that strong winds or heavy rain may reach warning criteria is considered moderate, while for Nelson it is considered low.
On Sunday the low should move away from the North Island, with conditions starting to ease over much of central and northern New Zealand late Saturday. However, there is the possibility that severe weather could still affect Hawkes Bay and Gisborne during overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning.
A period of settled weather is then expected over New Zealand during the remainder of Sunday and most of Monday. However, late on Monday a front is expected to approach the southwest of the country and move onto the South Island early Tuesday. Associated with this front there is a low risk of significant heavy rain about Fiordland and south Westland on Tuesday.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
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