Drier winter likely for some - NIWA
Neutral conditions (neither La Nina nor El Nino) presently exist in the tropical Pacific and should persist through much of winter, but there is a likelihood of El Nino developing by spring.
Circulation patterns over New Zealand this winter (June - August) are likely to be close to the seasonal norm - winter is the time of year when weather features are typically fast-moving and relatively active.
Winter rainfall totals are likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island, normal or below normal for Nelson/Marlborough, as well as the west and north of the North Island. Near normal winter rainfall totals are predicted for the South Island West Coast, and the eastern North Island.
For winter (June - August), sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be slightly above normal. Seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average overall for all regions of the country. Frosts and snowfalls typical of winter will occur from time to time.
Overall picture Temperature Seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average overall for all regions of the country. Frosts and snowfalls typical of winter will still occur from time to time.
Rainfall, soil moisture and river flows Winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island, normal or below normal for Nelson/Marlborough, as well as the west and north of the North Island. Near normal winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are predicted for the South Island West Coast, and the eastern North Island. River flows are predicted to be below normal for the north and east of the South Island, near normal in the eastern North Island, and normal or below normal elsewhere.
Regional predictions for the next three months Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be in the normal or below normal range.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington Seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average. Winter rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be in the normal or below normal range.
Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal for the time of year.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall. Seasonal rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are equally likely to be in the normal or below normal range. River flows are likely to be below normal this winter.
West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall. Near normal seasonal rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely, with normal or below normal river flows.
Coastal Canterbury, east Otago Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall. Winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be in the below normal range. Winter river flows are very likely to the below normal-Fuseworksmedia
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